On paper UFC 107 is one of the better cards of the last quarter of 2009, and it too fell victim to the injury bug. Heavyweight prospect Todd Duffee was supposed to get his first big test against Paul Buentello but pulled out in late October. Jon Fitch, meanwhile, was fighting Thiago Alves for a whole three seconds before it was revealed Alves hurt his knee.
Still this is a very solid card, and one that is tough for me to pick because headliners BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez are two of my favorite fighters in the sport. Nonetheless, here it goes.
BJ Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego Sanchez (21-2)
I've been a fan of Sanchez since watching the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Even though he's an odd ball, he always comes across as genuine and regardless of his personality, you can't deny the intensity that he brings into the octagon each time out. While I don't think he's being given enough credit against Penn, the champ should be able to withstand an early onslaught and pick Diego apart on the feet as the fight goes into the later rounds.
The pick: Penn
Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (25-5-1)
At first I wasn't all that jazzed about this fight. Then I saw the interviews with Kongo calling Mir a "big mouth." Love it. If Kongo can keep the fight standing up, I'll love it even more. And really, is Mir that great at taking people down? He usually gets tackled and then looks for submissions, so it will interesting to see if his wrestling is good enough to get Kongo to the mat, where he clearly has an advantage. For some reason, I think Kongo will land a big blow that drops Mir and he'll find a way to pound him out.
The pick: Kongo
Kenny Florian (11-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-10)
Florian said it himself: at some point in this fight he's going to be on his back. The question is how much time exactly will be spent on the back? Considering that Guida now has strategist Greg Jackson in his corner, you can expect him to go for takedowns nonstop. Florian, though, should be quick enough to negate some of these takedowns and in doing so, he'll expose Guida's lack of stand-up skills and do enough damage on the feet to win a close split decision.
The pick: Florian
Jon Fitch (20-3) vs. Mike Pierce (10-2)
Does the UFC hate Jon Fitch? It always seems like he's in the obligatory "blah" match of the card and this time it's no different. Maybe Pierce is better than I am giving him credit for, but his win over an unmotivated Brock Larson isn't looking so bright now. And I can't see him hurting Fitch or avoiding his takedowns, thus it has boring decision written all over it. If Fitch is serious about making another run at the title, he needs to demand some bigger names in 2010.
The pick: Fitch
Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (18-3)
I found new respect for Struve when his head was sliced open at UFC 99 and he still managed to slap a rear-naked choke on Denis Stojnic despite blood squirting everywhere. He's young but possess the submission game necessary to beat Buentello, who has seven losses on his record due to tap out. Buentello does have motivation to put on a good show considering it's his first time back in the UFC since 2006, but I expect Struve to take a lot of punishment before finding a submission late in round three.
The pick: Struve
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